The Illusion of Influence

How Public Opinion Fails to Shape Policy in America

The Democracy Delusion: How Public Opinion Fails to Sway U.S. Policy

In 2014, a groundbreaking study by Princeton University Professor Martin Gilens and Northwestern University Professor Benjamin I. Page shattered many Americans' assumptions about their democracy. The study, titled "Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens," analyzed over 1,800 policy decisions made between 1981 and 2002 to determine who truly holds power in the United States. The findings were as stark as they were unsettling: the average American citizen has a "near-zero" influence on public policy. In contrast, economic elites and organized interest groups exert significant sway over the decisions that shape the nation.

The Core Findings: Oligarchy Over Democracy

Gilens and Page's research provided empirical evidence that the United States operates more like an oligarchy than a democracy. Despite the ideal of government "by the people, for the people," the study found that public opinion has little to no effect on whether a bill becomes law. Specifically, the preferences of the bottom 90% of income earners in America have a statistically insignificant impact on policy outcomes, while the top 10%—those who can afford to hire lobbyists and make significant campaign contributions—enjoy substantial influence.

The study revealed that when average citizens and economic elites disagree, the elites almost always win. This suggests that policies benefiting the wealthy are more likely to be enacted, regardless of the preferences of the general population. It’s a chilling reminder that, despite the trappings of democracy, the system is heavily skewed in favor of those with money and power.

Modern Examples: The Continuing Influence of Money in Politics

While the Gilens and Page study covered policy decisions up to 2002, the influence of money in politics has only grown more pronounced in the years since. The 2010 Supreme Court decision in Citizens United v. FEC opened the floodgates for unlimited corporate spending in elections, further amplifying the voices of wealthy donors and interest groups.

For example, in the 2020 election cycle, the top 100 donors to political campaigns spent a record $1.2 billion, a clear demonstration of how money can drown out the voices of ordinary voters. This spending isn't just about supporting candidates; it's also about shaping the policy agendas that those candidates will pursue once in office. Wealthy individuals and corporations are able to ensure that their interests—be it tax cuts for the rich, deregulation, or subsidies—are prioritized over broader public concerns like healthcare, climate change, or income inequality.

Another modern example is the influence of the pharmaceutical industry on healthcare policy. Despite widespread public support for measures like Medicare negotiating drug prices—a policy supported by nearly 90% of Americans—Congress has repeatedly failed to pass comprehensive drug pricing reform. This failure is largely attributed to the enormous lobbying efforts by pharmaceutical companies, which spent over $300 million in 2022 alone to protect their profits.

The Impact on American Democracy

The implications of these findings are profound. If public opinion has little to no impact on policy, the very foundation of democratic governance is called into question. The idea that every citizen has an equal voice in the political process is a cornerstone of American democracy, but the reality appears to be quite different. Instead, the system favors those with wealth and connections, leading to policies that often exacerbate inequality rather than address it.

This disconnect between public opinion and public policy has contributed to growing political disillusionment and declining trust in government institutions. When people feel that their voices don't matter, they are less likely to participate in the political process, further entrenching the power of the elite.

The Path Forward: Restoring the Balance

Addressing this imbalance will require significant reforms to reduce the influence of money in politics and to ensure that the government truly represents all citizens, not just the wealthy few. Potential reforms include implementing public financing of campaigns, enacting stricter lobbying regulations, and overturning decisions like Citizens United that have allowed unlimited corporate spending in elections.

Another critical step is increasing transparency in the political process. Voters should have the right to know who is funding political campaigns and lobbying efforts, allowing them to hold elected officials accountable. Additionally, efforts to make voting more accessible and to eliminate gerrymandering can help ensure that elected representatives are more responsive to the will of the people.

Finally, it is essential to foster greater civic engagement and education. Citizens need to be informed about how the political system works and empowered to advocate for their interests. Only by demanding change can the American people reclaim their democracy from the grip of moneyed interests.

Conclusion: A Call to Action

The Gilens and Page study was a wake-up call for anyone who still believes in the power of the average voter in the United States. As the influence of money in politics continues to grow, the need for reform has never been more urgent. Restoring true democratic governance will require concerted efforts from both policymakers and the public to reduce the outsized influence of the wealthy and powerful and to ensure that the voices of all Americans are heard.

In the end, the survival of American democracy depends on the ability of its citizens to rise above the cynicism and apathy that have taken root in the face of these challenges. By working together to push for meaningful reforms, it is possible to build a government that is truly of, by, and for the people.